Bitcoin Records Worst Q1 in 8 Years as Volume Drops Sharply
Bitcoin closed the first quarter of 2026 with its weakest performance in eight years, as newly compiled data shows a break from traditional seasonal patterns. The asset recorded a -22.2% return in Q1, placing the decline among the highest first-quarter losses in recent history.
As a result, attention has shifted to how current conditions are impacting price behavior in the early part of Q2.
Historically, first-quarter performance has produced mixed outcomes, though the scale of the 2026 decline exceeds the usual range. For instance, earlier cycles delivered gains, including +71.77% in 2023, +103.17% in 2021, and +539.96% in 2013, while weaker years such as 2018 (-49.7%) and 2014 (-37.42%) highlight the downside extremes. Even so, the median Q1 return stands at -2.26%, indicating that while volatility is common, the latest drawdown is notably deeper than typical median levels.
In contrast, later quarters, particularly Q4, have consistently recorded stronger outcomes. Data shows an average Q4 return of +77.07% and a median of +47.73%, strengthening the pattern of stronger performance toward the end of the year.
At the same time, recent price action shows limited directional movement. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin at $66,966.90, recording 0.08% decline on the day.
Alongside this, participation levels appear to have declined. Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at $1.34 trillion, while 24-hour trading volume dropped 45.99% to $18.29 billion. As a result, the volume-to-market cap ratio of 1.36% points to relatively subdued trading activity compared to prior periods.
Meanwhile, derivatives data show a consistent imbalance in liquidation activity, with short positions accounting for a larger share of losses across multiple timeframes. Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $6.63 million, with $3.42 million attributed to shorts and $3.21 million to longs, indicating a slight tilt toward short-side pressure.
This pattern becomes more pronounced over shorter intervals. In the past 4 hours, $260.96K in positions were liquidated, including $228.82K from shorts and $32.14K from longs. Over a 12-hour timeframe, total liquidations reached $556.91K, with $328.44K from short positions and $228.47K from longs, maintaining the same directional imbalance.
